大气环境治理绩效实证分析——基于PSR模型的主成分分析法

An Empirical Analysis about the Performance of Atmospheric Environmental Management: Base on PSR Model and the Principal Component Analysis Method

大气环境治理绩效评价与考核是大气环境治理的重要内容和手段。笔者在已有大气环境质量评价、大气环境压力载荷度评价方法基础上,根据环境资源管理PSR模型,构筑了大气环境治理绩效评价体系。这一体系能够实现全面评价,便于揭示各评价要素之间的相互关系和进行大气环境治理成效的动因分析。笔者利用该体系,采用主成分分析法,对全国31个省份2011—2013年的大气环境治理绩效进行了实证分析,分析结果表明:绝大部分地区都高度关注"减排管理",大气环境压力状况持续缓解,个别地区的大气环境治理已经进入了较好的良性循环;但是,大气环境治理绩效两极分化的不平衡状态比较明显,大气环境治理没有体现出综合治理和系统治理,治理绩效近年来整体并无改善。为此,笔者提出了完善大气环境绩效考评方法、扩大大气环境治理重点区域范围、实现大气环境综合系统治理等政策建议。希望本文的评价方法和评价结论,能够推动我国大气环境治理绩效评价的完善和发展。

The performance evaluation and assessment of atmospheric environmental management is an important content and means of atmospheric environmental management. Based on the atmospheric environmental quality assessment and atmospheric pressure load degree evaluation method,I build the atmospheric environmental management performance evaluation system according to the pressure-state-response（ PSR） model. The system can achieve a comprehensive evaluation,reveal the relationship between the evaluation factors,and it is easy to be adopted to conduct an atmospheric environmental governance effectiveness analysis. Using the system,based on principal component analysis method,I carry out an empirical analysis of atmospheric environmental governance performance from 2011 to 2013 in 31 provinces（ regions）. The results show that： governments of most regions are highly concerned about ＂management emission reduction＂,and the pressure of the atmospheric environment continues to be relieved. Atmospheric environmental governance in some regions has entered a good virtuous circle. On the other hand,the atmospheric governance performances vary widely in different regions,and atmospheric governance is far from the state of comprehensive and systematic. Overall,the atmospheric environmental governance performance makes no improvement in recent years. I further put forward the evaluation method to improve the atmospheric environment performance,to expand the range of the key areas of the atmospheric environment management,and also propose the policy recommenda tions of the comprehensive system of atmospheric environment. It is expected that this paper can promote the improvement and development of the performance evaluation of atmospheric environmental management in China.