飞机起飞擦机尾事件的风险预测研究

Risk Prediction of Aircraft Tail Strike Events during Take-off Phase

为更加客观地预测飞机起飞时发生擦机尾事件的风险概率,帮助航空公司根据擦机尾事件风险特征制定针对性的训练计划,采用飞行快速存取记录器数据,利用科尔莫格罗夫-斯米诺夫检验(K-S检验)方法模拟飞机起飞离地仰角值的可能分布,并根据起飞离地仰角值的分布特征对飞机起飞擦机尾事件的风险进行预测。最后以某公司B737-800飞行中队及整个机队的飞机起飞离地仰角值为例进行分布检验,结果表明:各中队及整个机队的飞机起飞离地仰角值均服从正态分布,根据正态分布的概率密度函数,对各个机队飞机起飞擦机尾事件的风险可能性进行预测计算,得出三中队出现擦机尾事件的风险最小,二中队出现擦机尾事件的风险最大。该方法可进一步普及至其他不安全事件的风险预测,并可分析不同飞行员和机场的风险差异。

The aim of this study is to objectively predict the risk probability of commercial aircrafts tail strike events during take-off phase based on the Quick Access Recorder（QAR）data,and thereby propose a more targeted training program for the airline.To achieve this purpose,the paper puts forward a method based on flight performance and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test（K-S test）in order to verify whether pitch attitude during take-off is subject to a certain distribution.Then,the paper predicts the risk of aircraft tail strike during take-off according to the characteristics of the distribution.Finally,the paper uses the real QAR data collected from a Boeing 737-800 fleet to verify the effectiveness of the method.The results show that the take-off pitch attitude of each fleet group and the entire fleet are all subjected to normal distribution.The No.3fleet group has the lowest probability of tail strike while the No.2fleet group has the highest.The method in this paper can also be used to predict the risk of other safety events and analyze the risk of different pilots and airports.