南方集体林区林农风险偏好对于碳汇供给意愿的影响分析——浙江省风险偏好实验案例

How risk attitude of farmers influences the supply willingness of forest carbon sequestration in Zhejiang Province

森林碳汇已成为缓解气候变化、减少碳排放的创新途径。南方集体林区林改后小规模农户将成为森林碳汇的主要供给主体。由于森林碳汇是生态补偿市场化的新形式,农户的社会风险偏好态度将影响其碳汇供给的意愿和决策。因此分析南方集体林区不同风险类型农户的碳汇供给意愿,对于今后在南方集体林区产权主体分散的情况下明确碳汇供给主体,提高激励碳汇经营主要供给群体政策的瞄准度具有重要现实意义。论文通过浙江省5个案例县(市)183户林农的调查和风险偏好实验,测度了农户风险偏好,共获得风险偏好、风险中性和风险厌恶的农户样本分别为72,33,78个,在对农户的碳汇供给意愿进行描述性统计基础上,运用二元Logit模型分析了影响农户碳汇供给意愿的影响因素,包括风险偏好、个体异质性、社会资本和组织制度。结果显示:风险厌恶型农户的碳汇供给意愿显著高于风险偏好类农户;林地资源规模对于碳汇供给意愿有积极作用;政府造林营林的补贴等外部政策制度变量也会显著激励家庭的碳汇供给意愿。为此国家需要努力引导成立碳汇交易中介,减少风险厌恶型农户进入碳汇市场的交易成本;鼓励通过林地流转等行为促使林地规模经营,引导具有一定经济实力的规模大户和社会资本率先开发碳汇交易项目;在南方集体林区重点加大对小规模林农的营造林补贴,提高林农碳汇经营的积极性。

Forest carbon sequestration（FCS）has became a new approach for reducing climate change and carbon emissions. After southern collective forest tenure reform,small- scale rural households became the main subject for FCS supply. The risk attitude of rural households can influence their willingness and decision- making about FCS supply due to new ecological compensation style and it is necessary and meaningful to analyze rural households＇ willingness for FCS supply in order to identify the main FCS supply subject with decentralization forestland and improving policy aiming for carbon forest management. Through rural households survey and risk preference experiments in five case counties in Zhejiang,China. Here,we measured the risk attitude of rural households and found 72,33 and 78 rural households could be divided into riskpreference,risk- neutral and risk- averse groups,respectively. With descriptive statistics of rural households＇ willingness for FCS supply and binary Logit modeling we determined how risk attitudes and other factors（e.g. individual heterogeneity,social capital and organization system）influence willingness for FCS supply. We found that FCS supply willingness of rural households with risk- averse attitudes have significantly higher willingness than the risk- preference group;larger forest land area and forest management subsidy have positive impacts on FCS supply willingness. According this,governments should pay more attention to building a carbon agency for reducing transaction costs of small-scale rural households who have risk-averse attitudes and it should encourage forestland transfer contracts and drive social capital and large- scale rural households with strong economic strength to engage in carbon forest management initiatives. Last,it is important to design carbon forest management subsidies for small- scale rural households to improve their carbon forest management activities.