医院危机预警体系模型的测算

Measurement of Hospital Crisis Early Warning System Model

目的使用医院危机历史数据测算获得医院危机预警体系模型。方法采用SPSS 16.0统计软件对8家医院的危机数据指标进行分析,使用逻辑回归法进行试算,获取方程。结果模型具有统计学意义,发生危机前30天医院高层管理者行为不当并被媒体曝光(X1),医院中最高级领导层到与一线工作者之间的管理层级数(X3),发生危机前30天患者投诉次数(X12)和发生危机前30天媒体负面宣传数(X18)是该模型的基本参数,模型公式为Y=-5.533+2.296*X1+0.811*X3+0.671*X12+1.208*X18。结论医院危机管理应注重高层管理者的德行、信息畅通程度、患者满意度和社会公共关系四个方面,也是预测医院危机爆发的重要参考指标。

Object To measure the hospital crisis early warning system model by using historical data of hospitals. Methods The crisis historical data index of 8 public hospitals were analyzed by SPSS16.0 statistical software, logistic regression method was used to calculate the equation. Results Misbehave of senior managers and media exposure 30 days before crisis（X1 ）, management layers（X3 ）, patient complaints 30 days before crisis （X12） and negative publicity media 30 days before the crisis（ X18 ） were the basis parameter of the model. The model formula was Y= -5.533 ＋2.296 ＊XI ＋0.811 ＊X3 ＋0.671 ＊X12 ＋1.208 ＊X18. Conclusion Hospital crisis management should focus on senior managers＇ virtue, the smooth degree of information flow, patients＇ satisfac- tion and social public relations, which were the important reference index of predicting hospital crisis.