摘要
为全面表征河流系统在外界胁迫下的发展趋势,结合生物免疫理论,构建了河流健康预警指标模型,并采用趋势外推的预测方法对河流健康进行警情分析和警度预报。在对扬州市槐泗河进行实例分析后获得以下研究成果:基于免疫理论的河流健康预警体系能够模拟预警河流的健康状况,预测可靠度高;在对槐泗河进行预测预警后,建议加强日常河道管理,并定期进行针对性的河流疏浚整治。
To state the development trend of river system under external stress totally,I construct early warning indicators model of river health to analyze river health of police intelligence and forecast warning degree,with biological immune theory and the trend extrapolation forecasting method.I analyze the health condition of Huaisi River,and forecast its warning degree in a few year.The study shows that the immune theory of river health early warning system can simulate early warning of rivers health status.After forecasting and analyzing the health condition of Huaisi River,we should strengthen the daily management of the river and on a regular basis for river dredging remediation.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2016年第3期64-68,73,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
免疫理论
河流健康
趋势外推
预警
槐泗河
immune theory
river health
trend extrapolation
early warning
Huaisi River
