基于多层次熵权模型的行蓄洪区启用风险评价

The Multi-Level Entropy Weight Model for Using Risk Estimation of Flood Detention Basin

在分析行蓄洪区启用风险特点的基础上,从经济风险、社会风险、行蓄洪风险和防洪减灾能力四个方面选取了16个指标,构建了行蓄洪区启用风险评价指标体系框架。针对该评价体系的复杂性,提出熵权法与层次分析法合成模型即多层次熵权综合评价法,并尝试将该模型运用到行蓄洪区启用风险的评价中,同时实现对评价指标和风险等级的高低排序。选取淮河干流21处行蓄洪区进行实证分析,结果表明:指标体系中的行蓄洪淹没面积、人口密度和平均淹没水深是造成行蓄洪区启用风险的主要因素;行洪区启用风险普遍偏高,行洪区4处启用风险等级处于"高"水平;蓄洪区中城西湖、城东湖和瓦埠湖启用风险"高",蒙河洼启用风险也同样"较高"。

Based on analyzing the operational risk feature of flood storage area,a risk estimation system of flood storage area was established in the paper.The system contained 16 indices of 4aspects hased on economy risk,social risk,risk of flooding and the flood control capacity.For the complexity of the evaluation system,then it used the multi-level entropy weight model by entropy method and AHP,while achieved sequence of indices and risk level for using risk estimation of flood detention basin.The multi-level entropy weight model is used to analyze the operational risk estimation of 21 sites flood detention basin in the main stream of Huaihe River.The results show that,flooded area,population density and average submerged depth are main factors of operational risk in the indicator system;In the main stream of Huaihe River,all of the flood risks of flood areas lie at high level,and the operational risk of4 sites flood areas are high;The operational risk of Chengxihu,Chengdonghu and Wabuhu are the high in the detention basin,and also Menghewa detention basin lie at the higher level.