缅甸大选后政局评估与中缅关系前瞻

The Post Election Situation Assessment in Myanmar and the Prospect of China-Myanmar Relationship

2015年11月8日,缅甸举行了5年一次的全国大选。昂山素季领导的"全国民主联盟"赢得压倒性胜利,军方支持的"联邦巩固与发展党"败选,民盟将凭借议席优势而主导联邦议会两院议长和总统人选。军方承认大选结果,愿与新政府合作。如果权力过渡期不出极端意外,民盟组建新政府顺利,其领导的政府将从2016年3月起执政5年,缅甸政治迎来大变局。但由于缅甸政治生态复杂,并面临复杂的民族、宗教矛盾,经济社会发展任务艰巨,民盟执政未必一帆风顺。中缅友好关系总体将向前发展,但也存在一些隐忧。

On November 8th of 2015, Myanmarheld the national election in 5 years, in which the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi won a landslide victory, while the Union Solidarity and Development Party supported by the military lost the election. As a result, the NLD will dominate the election of speakers of both houses and the president by occupying the majority seats. Min Aung Hlaing, Commander of the Myanmar Defense Force, expressed that he recognized the election results and is willing to cooperate with the new government. President Thein Sein also said he would give the power to the new government on time. If no extreme incident occurs during the power transition period and the NLD sets up the new government smoothly, the new government led by the NLD will start its 5-year term in March of 2016, which will fundamentally change Myanmar's internal politics. But as Myanmar's political ecology is complex, is confronted with complicated ethnic and religious contradictions, and the task of socio-economic development is arduous, the NLD government is likely to meet with a host of difficulties. Although China-Myanmar relationship is advancing on the whole, there exist some underlying apprehensions.