基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的河南省老年人口系数预测

Predication of the coefficient of elderly population in Henan province based on the gray GM(1,1) modle

河南省老年人口绝对量大,位居全国各省之首,分析河南省人口老龄化趋势对经济发展有重要的意义.基于《河南省统计年鉴(2001—2013年)》老年人口系数的数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对老年人口系数进行预测并运用残差检验和后验检验的方法对模型进行检验,结果显示预测的精度并不高.因此,对模型进行改进,采用二次平滑改进的GM(1,1)模型对老年人口系数进行预测,预测结果表明,未来十年内河南省65岁及65岁以上老年人口系数每年都会不同程度上升,故老龄化趋势逐渐上升.最后,对老龄化现象提出了一些对策和建议.

The elderly population in Henan province is large,at the top of all the provinces in China. Analyzing the trend of population aging plays an important role in economic development. In this paper,based on the data of Henan statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2012,firstly the grey GM（ 1,1） model is adopted to the prediction of coefficient of aging population,and the residual test and posterior test method are used to test the model. The results show that the prediction accuracy is not high,so we try to improve the model,and predict the coefficient of elderly population using the second smooth improved GM（ 1,1） model. The predicted results show that in the next decade the coefficient of elderly population aged more than 65 and 65 years old will rise in various degree every year,the trend of population aging in Henan province is rising gradually. Finally,I put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for aging phenomenon.