浙江城乡发展转型程度的时空特征及驱动力

Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving forces to Zhejiang urban-rural development transformation degree

城乡发展转型可以促进城乡资源要素的均衡配置与发展,最终目标是实现城乡一体化。通过构建人口、土地、产业和社会为主的城乡发展转型程度的指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法测度1991、2002和2013年的转型程度,并用空间自相关、地理加权回归模型(GWR)判别转型驱动力。研究结果表明:浙江省城乡发展转型的程度测度中,高水平区域整体集聚在浙北地区,逐渐增大与浙西南、浙东南地区的差距;省内城乡发展转型程度的区际差异显著,高高值集聚区为环杭州湾块状地区,低低值集聚区为浙东南、浙西南交界处的条带状地区;驱动力判别表明转型程度较高的浙北地区受资金、市场和区位的综合影响,转型程度中等的浙东南地区受资金和区位的双重影响,转型程度最低的浙西南地区仅受市场要素影响。

Urban-rural development transformation is targeted at ultimate urban-rural integration realization through urban-rural resource balancing and developing. Applying an Entropy Weighted TOPSIS method and Geographically Weighted Regression Model（GWR）, this paper measured the degree of Zhejiang urban-rural development transformation in 1991, 2002, and 2013 by building an index system of urban-rural development transformation degree which incorporates four individual indicators, including population, land use, industry, and society. In addition, this paper also identified the driving forces for the transformation. Results show that 1） the urban-rural development transformation degree level is higher in the regions of northern Zhejiang Province, and the gap between the north and the southwest and the southeast is increasing; 2） the difference among different regions within the province is significant with high level of transformation concentrated in the regions surrounding the Hangzhou Bay, and the low level of transformation located in the banded regions between the southeast and the southwest borders; 3） the driving forces for northern Zhejiang＇ high level of transformation include funds, market, and location; and 4） the southeast of Zhejiang with moderate level is influenced by funds and location, and the southwest of Zhejiang with the lowest level is merely driven by market force.