北极航线货流结构与演化趋势研究

The Structure and Evolution Trend of Arctic Route Cargo Flow

研究北极航线的货流结构具有重要的战略意义。以集装箱出现时间为节点将北极航线货流演化分为两个阶段，第一阶段只存在液散货、LNG、干散货货流，第二阶段增加了集装箱货流，时间节点假设为2030年，此外假设集装箱货流经10年到2040年发展成熟。利用乘幂法、距离分配模型及各货流与国际供需的关系计算得到未来北极航线货流结构演化进程。发现其演化特征为：北极航线货流量在未来20～30年将快速增长，预计2030年有将近6亿吨货流量，预计2040年货流量超过10亿吨。同时东西线货流结构在初始状态、演化进程中都显现出不同的特征。

The value of Arctic route is similar to that of ＂One Belt and One Road＂ for China, and it＇s of great strategic significance to study the proposed Arctic route＇s cargo flow structure and evolution. The paper divides the evolution of Arctic route into two stages from the appearance of container flow. In the first stage, there are liquid bulk cargo flow, dry bulk cargo flow, LNG flow, and dry bulk cargo flow, and container flow adds in the second stage. The time node between two stages is assumed to be in 2030, in addition to the assumption that container cargo flows will need 10 years to mature in 2040. It calculates the process of evolution of prospective Arctic route＇s cargo flow structure by power algorithm, distance distribution model and the relationship of each cargo flow with the international supply and demand. Then the paper finds that features of evolution are that： the volume of cargo flow will grow rapidly in the next 20 to 30 years, predicating to be nearly 600 million tons in 2030 and over one billion tons in 2040. While the cargo flows between east and west lines are showing different characteristics in the process of initial state and evolution.