机场航煤加油规律分析及加油量预测

Fueling rule analysis and fuel charge prediction of jet fuel in airport

为合理规划民用运输机场的新建和扩建,根据机场历史加油基础数据,分析了机场航煤加油量与旅客吞吐量、飞机加油架次等主要影响因素之间的关系。编制了民用运输机场航煤加油量预测软件,采用比例系数法、线性回归法、灰色理论以及神经网络等多种预测方法,对特定机场的加油数据进行了分析,并对未来机场航煤加油量进行了预测。通过与多个机场基础数值相对比,得出结论:提出的机场航煤加油量组合预测模型预测精度较高,预测软件应用方便,可为今后机场设计与建设提供理论依据。

In order to reasonably plan the construction and expansion of civil transport airport, based on the historical fueling data of airport, this paper analyzes the relationship between fuel charges of jet fuel in airport and main influencing factors including passenger throughput and aircraft refueling sorties. A software predicting the fuel charges of jet fuel in civil transport airport is developed, which adopts many prediction methods including proportional coefficient method, linear regression method, grey theory and neural network to analyze the fueling data of specific airport and predict the fuel charge of jet fuel in the future. By comparing with the basic data from different airports, it is concluded that the proposed combined prediction model for the fuel charge of jet fuel in airport can offer accurate prediction and the application of prediction software is very convenient. The prediction model and software can provide theoretical guidance for the design or construction of airport in the future.