基于LMDI分解模型的山东省粮食产量时空差异及影响因素研究

Study on Spatiotemporal Differences and Influence Factors of Grain Yield in Shandong Province Based on LMDI Decomposition Model

山东省是农业大省,其粮食产量对全国的粮食供给有重大影响。本文利用LDMI模型对1996～2012年山东粮食产量的时空特征变化进行分析,并定量分析耕地面积、复种指数、粮食单产、粮作比例等不同因素对粮食总产的影响效果。结果表明,1996～2012年,山东粮食生产总体呈上升态势,总量由1996年的4 707万吨增至2012年的5 355万吨,利用因素分解法分析发现,粮食总量的增长主要依赖于粮食单产的上升和耕地面积的增加。将1996～2012年分成四个相等的时间段,分析粮食总量变化的驱动因素和影响效果,发现各因素的贡献值都随着时间推移出现不同程度下降,粮食产量的增速放缓。通过以上分析,力图解释山东省粮食总量变化的驱动因素,为保证粮食生产提供参考和依据。

Shandong is a big province in agriculture,and its grain yield has a significant impact on the national food supply. The characteristics of space and time changes of grain yield in Shandong Province during1996 ～ 2012 were analyzed using LDMI model,and the influences of different factors,such as farmland area,cropping index,grain yield per unit area and grain crop ratio,on grain yield were made quantitative analyses.The results indicated that the grain production in Shandong generally showed a rise trend from 1996 to 2012,which increased from 47. 07 million ton in 1996 to 53. 55 million ton in 2012. Factor decomposition analysis showed that the total grain growth mainly depended on the increases of grain yield per unit area and cultivated land area. The contribution value of every factor decreased with the passage of time,and the growth of total grain output slowed down. Through above analysis,the driving factors of the change of total grain output in Shandong were explored,which would provide references and bases for ensuring grain production.