基于改进的GM_Markon模型对北京创意产业发展的预测

Predict the Development of Creative Industries of Beijing Based on Improved GM Markov Model

创意产业产值受周边环境因素影响较大,在某些年份甚至出现局部较大畸变,通过相关文献学习,首先通过对灰色模型预测,然后经过残差修正增加模型规律性(采用两次残差累加),最后在残差修正灰色模型基础上应用改进的马尔科夫链提高预测精度,对2005-2014年北京创意产业产值数据验证算法有效性进行研究。此算法优点在于弥补灰色模型数据少,随机性大的缺陷,很好修正畸变数据和提高拟合度。

Creative industry output is influenced by lots of surroundings factors Even the output appears a partial large distortion in some years.Through literature study,First through the gray model prediction output,then increased regularity by residual correction model（two residual accumulation）,Finally,improving the forecast accuracy meet to requirements using Improved Markov chain based on residuals error correction of the gray mode,research on validation algorithms effectiveness data of the creative industry output of Beijing for 2005—2014.The advantage of this algorithm is that s making up the small data of gray mode and randomness large,correcting distortion and improving goodness of fit.