基于CO_2减排目标的2050年全球能源需求展望

Global Energy Demand Prospect Based on CO_2 Emission Reduction Target in 2050

分析展望中长期能源需求,研究和提出相应的能源可持续发展战略,一直是国内外相关机构和学者研究的热点领域。应用时间序列、趋势外推、计量经济、能源系统(平衡)分析等模拟技术构建了全球能源需求分析模型。在此基础上,以2050年能源消费产生的CO_2减排50%为目标设计了2℃情景,对该情景的能源需求进行了分析展望。研究显示:2℃情景下亚太地区特别是印度是全球能源需求增长的重要驱动力,全球一次能源需求总量将在2045年后趋近饱和;一次能源需求结构将实现由化石能源为主向非化石能源为主的转型,非水可再生能源快速发展是这一转型的主要动力;电能替代是终端能源消费结构变化的主旋律,电力将取代石油成为第一大终端用能。

Forecasting long-term energy demand and proposing corresponding sustainable energy development strategies has been a hot research area for a long time. Based on the combined“bottom-up” and“top-down” thinking, a global energy demand analysis model is established in this paper by employing simulation methods including time series, trend extrapolation, econometrics and energy system （equilibrium） analysis. By designing a 2 ℃ scenario in which CO2 emission from energy sector is reduced by 50% in 2050, the proposed model analyses the world energy demand in 2050. The key findings under 2 ℃ scenario are as follows： i） Asia Pacific, particularly India, will become an important engine for global energy demand growth, while the global energy demand will reach the ceiling in 2045; ii） the structure of primary energy demand will be dominated by non-fossil energy and the non-hydro renewable energy will be the main driver for the transformation; iii） electricity will play a dominant role in the change of final energy consumption structure and it will take the place of petroleum to take up the largest share in final energy.