摘要
分析展望中长期能源需求,研究和提出相应的能源可持续发展战略,一直是国内外相关机构和学者研究的热点领域。应用时间序列、趋势外推、计量经济、能源系统(平衡)分析等模拟技术构建了全球能源需求分析模型。在此基础上,以2050年能源消费产生的CO_2减排50%为目标设计了2℃情景,对该情景的能源需求进行了分析展望。研究显示:2℃情景下亚太地区特别是印度是全球能源需求增长的重要驱动力,全球一次能源需求总量将在2045年后趋近饱和;一次能源需求结构将实现由化石能源为主向非化石能源为主的转型,非水可再生能源快速发展是这一转型的主要动力;电能替代是终端能源消费结构变化的主旋律,电力将取代石油成为第一大终端用能。
Forecasting long-term energy demand and proposing corresponding sustainable energy development strategies has been a hot research area for a long time. Based on the combined“bottom-up” and“top-down” thinking, a global energy demand analysis model is established in this paper by employing simulation methods including time series, trend extrapolation, econometrics and energy system (equilibrium) analysis. By designing a 2 ℃ scenario in which CO2 emission from energy sector is reduced by 50% in 2050, the proposed model analyses the world energy demand in 2050. The key findings under 2 ℃ scenario are as follows: i) Asia Pacific, particularly India, will become an important engine for global energy demand growth, while the global energy demand will reach the ceiling in 2045; ii) the structure of primary energy demand will be dominated by non-fossil energy and the non-hydro renewable energy will be the main driver for the transformation; iii) electricity will play a dominant role in the change of final energy consumption structure and it will take the place of petroleum to take up the largest share in final energy.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第3期34-38,共5页
Electric Power
关键词
减排目标
能源需求
模型
展望
emission reduction target
energy demand
model
prospect