我国CPI与食品价格、货币供给的非线性依从关系——基于STR模型的实证研究

Non-linear Relationship among CPI,Food Prices and Money Supply——An Empirical Study Based on STR Model

基于CPI、食品价格和货币供给的2006年4月至2013年7月的月度数据,运用非线性平滑转换回归(STR)模型刻划我国CPI与食品价格、货币供给的内在依从关系。研究发现:三者之间的关系呈现分段特征,并在线性与非线性关系间转换;当货币供给增长较快时,食品价格对CPI的影响呈现出非线性特征,此时,食品价格上涨对CPI具有更强的推动作用,而当货币供给增长较慢时,非线性特征消失;随着货币供给增长加快,CPI受到食品价格和货币供给的影响容易从低水平快速攀升。

Based on the data of CPI,food price and money supply from April 2006 to July 2013,this paper employs nonlinear smooth transition regression（ STR） model to depict the relationship between CPI,food price and money supply. The results shows： the relationship among them is divided into different periods,changing between linearity and non- linearity;when money supply growth rate is high,the impact of food prices on the CPI shows a non-linear characteristics,and at this time,food prices produces a stronger role in promoting CPI; when money supply growth rate is low,the nonlinear features disappear; when money supply growth rate increases,CPI affected by food price and money supply climbs from a low level easily and quickly.