区域高等教育与经济发展的动态关系研究——以河北省为例

Study of Dynamic Relationship between Regional Higher Education and Economic Development of Hebei Province

基于1993-2012年河北省高等教育、GDP、产业结构变动等变量数据,根据协整理论、VEC模型、Granger因果检验理论,考察河北省高等教育与经济增长、产业结构变动之间的动态关系.实证结果表明:河北省高等教育发展与经济增长和产业结构调整之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系;短期内高等教育与产业结构变动对经济增长影响并不明显;高等教育与经济增长、产业结构变动与经济增长之间均存在着双向因果关系,因此合理发展高等教育,保证高教质量,对于经济的常态发展有着重要作用.

Based on the data of the higher education（ HE）,GDP,and industrial restructure of Hebei province from 1993-2012,this article applies co-integration theory,VEC model,the theory of Granger causality tests to the study of the dynamic relationship between HE,the economic growth and industrial restructure. The results of the empirical study show that there is a long-term stability of the dynamic equilibrium relationship between them.The short run effect is not obvious for both HE and industrial restructure on economic growth. Mutual causality relationship sets up in both HE and industrial restructure for the economic growth. Therefore,reasonable development of HE and assurance of HE quality play an important role of the normal development of economy.