不确定条件下的山西省水资源调度规划研究

Study on water resources allocation in Shanxi in conditions of uncertainty

本文以山西省水资源的供需平衡为目标,进行水资源调度规划研究。首先根据山西省水资源分区、行政分区以及需水行业领域的水资源供需体系,构建了一个省级三层水资源调度框架(3-WRAF)。然后,以预先判断给定初始调度计划,再根据实际情景进行水资源调度,建立了基于3-WRAF的两阶段水资源调度模型(T-WRAP)。考虑在不同降水情景下,供水、需水、输水和经济收益等存在很强的随机和模糊不确定性,将T-WRAP转化为两阶段随机模糊水资源调度规划模型(TSF-WRAP)。最后,通过在目标满意度和约束可行度之间进行折中来求解TSF-WRAP,并进行实例计算给出了不同降水情景下山西省的水资源调度方案。

This paper presents a study on the water resources allocation in Shanxi province to achieve a balance between supply and demand of water resources. First, we formulate a three-level water allocation framework （3-WRAF） suitable for the water resources supply and demand system of this province, including its water divisions, administrative divisions, and water use industries. Then, based on 3-WRAF we develop a two-stage water scheduling model （T-WRAP） considering the given plan of initial allocation and the actual situations of water resources. There exist strong stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties in water supplies and demands, water economic benefits, etc. under different scenarios of precipitation, and therefore this T-WRAP model is converted into a two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming model for water resources allocation （TSF-WRAP）. Finally, TSF-WRAP is solved by making compromises between the satisfaction degree of objective and the feasible degree of constraints. Results show that optimal water scheduling plans for Shanxi can be achieved for different scenarios of precipitation.