东北三省能源消费和经济增长关系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

A Study on Causalities Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Three Northeastern Provinces——Based on an Empirical Analysis of Panel Data

本文通过选取中国东北三省1990-2013年的数据,运用面板单位根、面板协整、广义修正最小二乘(FMOLS)和基于面板的误差修正模型,对中国东北三省能源消费和经济增长关系进行实证分析。结果表明:从异质面板的分析结果看当黑龙江、辽宁和吉林每增加1%单位能源消费时,对应的经济增长上升0.43%、0.478%、0.442%;从同质面板的角度分析,当东北三省每增加1%单位能源消费时,对应的经济增长上升0.45025%。从短期来讲,能源消费和经济增长不存在因果关系;从长期来看,能源消费和经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。最后提出了发展集约型发展模式、增加能源利用效率、加大能源储备和供给能力、大力发展服务业等建议。

In this paper,by choosing data of three Northeastern provinces of China,from 1990 to 2013using panel unit root,panel cointegration and error correction model based on a panel of the three northeastern provinces of energy consumption and economic growth in China by empirical study. The results showed that：from the analysis results of heterogeneous panel,when the province of Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin 1%increase per unit energy consumption,the corresponding economic growth by 0.43%,0.478%,0.442%.From the perspective of homogenous panel,whenever energy consumption of three northeast provinces rises by 1%,the economic growth rises correspondingly by 0.45025%.In short term,there is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth;in long run,there is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.Finally,the paper puts forward some recommendations about the development of intensive development mode,increasing energy efficiency,increasing large energy reserves and supply capacity and the development of the service industry.