基于系统动力学和BIM的建筑施工安全风险预警决策模型仿真

Pre-warning Decision-making Model Simulation of Building Construction Safety Risk Based on System Dynamics and BIM

针对建筑企业施工安全风险管理过程中预警决策困难等问题,主要是由于施工环境多变、工人和设备易受各方面影响出现较大的工作失误,导致施工安全风险预警决策系统呈现出复杂性和非线性特征;而传统的安全风险评估预测方法大部分以定性分析为主,不能直接用于指导施工安全风险的预警决策分析;在对比分析系统动力学在预警决策应用的优势,并以BIM信息模型提供原始真实的现场数据,在模型假设和变量边界确定的基础上,建立以流图为基础的施工安全风险预警仿真系统模型;使用Vensim PLE软件对施工安全风险预测及控制优选过程进行仿真,结果验证了当前施工风险过程,并依据仿真结果对进入BIM模型的施工方案、人员及设备进行调整以指导施工,提高施工安全风险管理效率。

The warning decision difficulties and other issues of the construction building for enterprise security risk management process,mainly due to the changed construction environment,workers and equipment susceptible to various aspects of the work of larger failures,resulting in construction safety risk warning system showing the complexity of decision-making and nonlinear characteristics;traditional security risk assessment prediction methods are focued on the qualitative analysis,can not be directly used to guide the construction of the security risk warning decision analysis; kinetics warning decision advantages in comparison systems,and BIM information model provides original real field data,on the basis of model assumptions and variables defined border established on the basis of a flow pictured construction safety risk early warning system simulation model; This paper uses Vensim PLE software construction safety risk prediction and control preferred process simulation,the results validate the current construction risk process,and based on the simulation results into the BIM model construction program,personnel and equipment to be adjusted to guide the construction,improve construction safety risk management efficiency.