项目联合体EPC模式下基于考虑风险的Shapley值的收益分配模型

Revenue Distribution Model Based on the Shapley Value Considering the Risk Under the EPC Model

组建项目联合体在国内EPC项目中运用广泛,而项目联合体合作成功的关键在于利润的分配。为了建立公平合理的利润分配机制,激励EPC项目联合体成员企业实现联盟,考虑成员所承担的风险,运用模糊综合评价法计算联合体成员的风险因子,并将风险因子纳入Shapley值模型,建立"基于贡献、兼顾风险"的收益分配模型,并进行数值模拟。结果表明,所建模型可以实现最大收益下的最合理的利润分配,并且考虑了风险后的分配模型不影响联合体总利润,只对优化收益根据"高风险、高回报"的原则进行合理分配,满足了公平性的要求,更体现了联合体成员的诉求。

The consortium is widely used in the domestic EPC projects. The key of the success of the project is the distribution of the profits. In order to establish an equitable and rational benefit allocation mechanism and motivate,to achieve the alliance of the EPC project members,the risk of members is considered,Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is used to calculate the risk factors.Then the risk factor is put into the Shapley model,the distribution model is established which taking contribution and risk into account,then doing numerical simulation. The results show that the built model can achieve maximum benefit under the most reasonable profit distribution, and after considering the risk,allocation model does not affect the overall profit,only to optimize income according to the principle of ＂high risk, high return ＂to rational allocation, not meeting the requirements of fairness,but also reflecting the aspirations of the members of the commonwealth.