深基坑工程施工过程风险综合评价

Synthetic Evaluation on Risk of Deep Excavation Engineering Construction Process

针对当前对深基坑工程施工风险进行评价需要解决风险指标体系构建、指标权重分配和评价方法实现的问题,建立了证据理论结合区间数赋值的深基坑工程施工过程风险评价模型.依据深基坑工程的施工原理和管理过程,应用"工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS)"和"0-1"方法识别风险因素,建立深基坑工程施工过程风险评价指标体系.结合区间数理论和证据理论的优势,降低深基坑工程施工过程风险量化值的主观性,详述构建识别框架、确定可信度函数以及信息合成的方法与步骤.最后通过实例分析说明了该方法的合理性与可行性.

For the three main problems remaining to be solved in the construction process of deep excavation engineering：building a risk index system,distributing the weight of evaluation indexes and evaluating the risk,this article builds a risk evaluation system based on the D-S（Dempster-Shafer）evidence theory combined with interval number theory.Firstly we identify the risk factors by＂WBS-RBS＂and＂0-1＂methods to build the risk index system based on the construction principle and management process of deep excavation.In order to decrease the subjectivity of the process of deep excavation risk quantification,then we combine the advantages of interval number theory and D-S evidence theory to specify the methods and procedures about how to build identifying framework,choose the reliability function and synthesize information.At last,the rationality and feasibility of the risk evaluation system are manifested by analyzing the example.