俄罗斯兼并克里米亚的心理动机研究--兼论对中国独联体地区外交的启示

Russia's Psychological Motivations for Annexing the Crimea and Implications for Chinese Diplomacy in the Commonwealth of Independent States

在乌克兰危机中,俄罗斯兼并克里米亚是一件具有转折意义的事件。不过,其行为似乎并非在贯彻一种试图在前苏联地区重建"帝国"的连贯战略,而是在很大程度上根据形势的发展做出应对。通过将心理因素纳入到分析当中,能够对俄罗斯兼并克里米亚的行为做出较为合理的解释。自乌克兰反对派破坏与亚努科维奇达成的和解协定而主要的西方国家迅速承认由反对派组建的临时政府伊始,俄罗斯决策者即产生了强烈的愤怒和怨恨等情绪。主要受此情绪影响,俄罗斯决定推动克里米亚并入俄罗斯。而俄罗斯对克里米亚的"眷恋"感,使其排除了支持克里米亚独立这一选项。由于俄罗斯与克里米亚的关系有别于其与乌克兰顿巴斯地区的关系,致使俄罗斯目前没有在该地区复制"克里米亚模式"。从心理层面分析俄罗斯兼并克里米亚的动机,对于我们明晰俄罗斯与西方之间何以演变至目前这种"新冷战"的状态,以及剖析欧美国家对俄政策的失误能提供一定的洞见,而且能为中国推动丝绸之路经济带的建设提供重要的启示。

Russia's determination to annex the Crimea represents a key turning point in the Ukraine crisis.While so,Russian behavior in this case does not seem to be following a continuous strategic attempting to rebuild an'empire'in the former Soviet territories,but to a greater extent reflects more an ad-hoc response to situation transitions.Incorporating psychological factors in the analysis can provide us a reasonable explanation of Russia's behavior in annexing the Crimea.The Ukrainian opposition's breaking of the peace agreement with Viktor Yanukovych,and the rapid recognition given by most major Western countries to the temporary government established by the opposition generated anger and resent on the part of Russian decisionmaker.Influenced mainly by these emotions,Russia determined to initiate the annexation of the Crimea.Russia's emotive 'yearning'for the Crimeacaused it to rule out the option of Crimean independence.As its relations with the Crimea are quite distinct from those with Ukraine's Donbass region,Russia has not replicated the 'Crimea Approach' in the latter region.Applying psychology to understand Russia's motivations for annexing the Crimea offers important insights for clarifying why relations between Russia and the West have evolved into the present'New Cold War'state,and for assessing why Western states made miscalculations in their policies towards Russia.At the same time,it also offers important implications for the development of China's Silk Road Economic Belt in the region.