摘要
针对大型引水隧洞岩爆预测问题,构建了基于组合赋权的云模型。以引水隧洞的弹性变形能指数、单轴抗压强度与岩石抗拉强度之比、岩石脆性指数、岩石切向应力与单轴抗压强度之比作为评价指标体系,确定评价指标标准及云模型特征参数,采用云模型正向发生器生成云图,以投影寻踪法和Delphi法计算组合权重,进而求出综合确定度并给出岩爆预测等级。实例计算表明,大型引水隧洞岩爆预测精度达100%,从而验证了该方法合理有效。
A model based normal cloud model and combination weight model has been established to forecast rock burst of large diversion tunnel.Four factors are chosen as the assessment indicators for the intensity evaluation,including the elastic strain energy index,the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength and tensile strength,the ratio of tangential stress and uniaxial compressive strength,and the rock brittleness index.Parameters of the cloud model and evaluation grade were calculated with the chosen assessment indicators,which generates the normal cloud droplets.Then the combination weight has been calculated based on projection pursuit analysis and Delphi method.Finally,the comprehensive membership has been calculated and the rock burst grade is given.Example results indicate that prediction accuracy of rock burst of large diversion tunnel reaches 100%.The rationality of this method is verified.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2016年第3期120-123,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
引水隧洞
岩爆
云模型
组合赋权
预测
diversion tunnels
rock burst
cloud model
combination weight
prediction
