中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析

Analysis of Cultivated Land and Grain Production Potential in China

【目的】分析未来中国耕地数量和粮食增产潜力,为国家粮食安全决策提供参考。【方法】以1980/1996—2013年耕地面积和粮食生产系列数据为样本,应用时间序列预测方法,基于中国第二次全国土地调查结果,预测2020年全国耕地面积、耕地复种指数、粮食作物与非粮食作物面积比、粮食作物种植结构,并从"高产示范区单产水平"、"品种区试单产水平"、趋势单产等多视角分析未来全国粮食增产潜力。【结果】到2020年,全国耕地面积为1.32×10~8 hm^2,粮食作物与非粮食作物面积占比为66﹕34,粮食作物播种面积为1.12×10~8 hm^2;从"高产示范区单产水平"看全国粮食总产有68.9%的增产潜力,从"品种区试单产水平"看全国粮食总产有35.5%的增产潜力,从趋势单产看2020年全国粮食总产潜力为6.34×10~8—6.53×10~8 t,与2013年相比增产5.3%—8.5%。【结论】未来中国耕地面积和粮食作物播种面积呈小幅减少之势,但在粮食作物单产不断提高的拉动下,未来中国粮食总生产能力继续呈上升之势。

【Objective】The purpose of this study is to reveal grain production potential and cultivated land resources and provide a reference for national food security decisions.【Method】The time series forecasting method was used to forecast the arable land area, cropping index, food and non-food crops area ratio, crop planting structure in 2020 by using the cultivated land area and grain production series data in 1980/1996-2013 as sampled and based on the results of the second survey of land resources. Then the potential of the nation＇s grain yield increase was analyzed from the multi-angle of view the high-yield demonstration area, the unit-yield level in variety regional test. 【Result】By 2020, the national cultivated land area will be 1.32×10~8 hm^2, grain crops and non-crops area will account for 66：34, grain crops acreage will be 1.12×10~8 hm^2. The potential of national grain production will be 68.9% from high-yield demonstration area and 35.5% from regional trial variety. By 2020, the potential of national grain production will reach 6.34×10~8-6.53×10~8 t, with 5.3%-8.5% increase compared to 2013.【Conclusion】In the future, the cultivated land and grain crops area will be decreased, but the national total grain production capacity will be continued show a upward trend with the pulling of crop yield increasing.