磁暴诱发电网故障灾害风险分析研究进展

Review of Risk Analysis for Severe Grid Accident Due to Geomagnetic Storm

地磁暴是太阳磁场剧烈变化在地球表面的作用结果,所产生的地电场会造成接地变压器直流偏磁,继而对电力系统安全运行造成不利影响。随着电网规模的增大和电压等级的增高,磁暴已经成为诱发电网灾害性故障风险的威胁之一。研究电力系统磁暴灾害风险能够为预防与控制其引发的电网事故提供重要参考。通过剖析磁暴引发的电力系统故障灾害电性历史事件,讨论了磁暴诱发电力系统风险机理与特点。分别从电网GIC引起的变压器故障和电力系统事故风险两个方面综述了近年来国内外电网磁暴灾害风险研究现状,分析了影响电网磁暴灾害风险的多样性和复杂性以及风险评估的难度;并指出了未来电网磁暴灾害风险的研究方向为风险评估、量化风险影响因素对风险的作用和风险防御等3个方面。

The geomagnetic storm is of the earth spatial effect derived from the dramatic changes in the solar magnetic field,which result in the geoelectric field adversely affecting on the power grid. With the increases of the grid size and the voltage level,the magnetic storm has become one of the server threats of the power grid disaster.The risk of the power system disaster was studied on due to geomagnetic storm can provide references for preventing and controlling the power grid accidents. Firstly,by analyzing the historical electrical power system fault events resulted from magnetic storm,the mechanism of power fault and the characteristics of the power system risk were discussed due to geomagnetic storm,and review the recent research at home and abroad on two risk aspects of both the level of the grid GIC and transformer reactive power loss caused by GIC. Secondly,the complexity and diversity of the risk influence factors were analyzed,and the difficultied of the assessment as well. At last,the future research was point out about power grid disaster due to geomagnetic storm should include three contents,i. e. risk evaluation,quantitative risk factors on the role of risk and risk prevention.