基于灰色组合模型的基坑周边建筑物沉降预测

Settlement Prediction of Buildings around the Foundation Pit Based on Grey Combinatorial Model

伴随着地下空间工程大量兴建,在基坑开挖阶段,定期观测周边建筑物沉降,分析预测其未来的沉降变化规律、发展趋势,对保证建筑物与人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。为科学合理预测基坑周边建筑物沉降值,在综合常用灰色预测模型,即Verhulst模型、GM(1,1)模型和SCGM(1,1)_c模型优点的基础上,建立灰色组合模型,通过挖掘各单一模型的有效信息,优化拟合结果,从而对基坑周边建筑物的沉降值进行有效预测。实例应用表明:灰色组合模型的预测值与观测数据的拟合结果优于单一预测模型,其预测精度明显提升,沉降预测值更为可靠,可为采取相应的预防或处理措施提供科学决策依据。

With the construction of underground space engineering,in the excavation stage of foundation pit,observing the settlement of the surrounding structures regularly,and analyzing and predicting the settlement change rules and the development trend in the future are very important to assure the safety of the structures and the people＇s life and property. In order to predict scientifically the settlement of structures around the foundation pit,the grey combinatorial model is built on the foundation of various advantages of commonly used models. The settlement of structures around the foundation pit can be predicted effectively,by digging the effective information of models individually and optimizing the fitted results. The results indicate that the fitted result of predicted value and observed value in grey combinatorial model is superior to the fitted result in single prediction model. The grey combinatorial model can provide the decision-making basis for the prevention or manipulation with the evident rise of precision and reliable values of settlement prediction.