中国对拉丁美洲典型国家直接投资的东道国决定因素分析

An Analysis on the Determinant Factors in Host Country of the Chinese FDI to the Typical Latin American Countries

在回顾对外直接投资理论和对拉丁美洲直接投资相关研究的基础上, 结合我国对拉丁美洲国家投资现状, 选取了拉丁美洲地区典型国家中能反映经济发展水平、劳动力资源和能源资源、汇率、劳动力资本和中拉间进出口贸易情况的6 个因素作为解释变量, 搜集了2003-2013 年间我国对拉丁美洲地区典型国家的直接投资和其他相关数据, 建立模型, 并经过平稳性检验、协整性检验和格兰杰因果检验, 估计结果得出上述6 个因素均为我国对拉丁美洲地区典型国家直接投资的决定因素, 并且前4 个因素影响效果为促进作用, 后两个因素为抑制因素.最后结合当前投资的现状和模型估计的结果提出相应的政策建议.

On the basis of reviewing literature and research of FDI theories and the FDI to the Latin American countries, combining the current situation of the Latin American countries' FDI from China, the article built a model by selecting six factors as explanatory factors in typical Latin American countries, which are able to reflect economic development level, labor force resources, energy resources, currency rates, labor force capitals and the real trade situation of China and Latin American countries, and collecting other data which are about China's FDI to the typical Latin American countries between 2003 and 2013. Through stability test, co-integration test and Grainger test, the result show that the six factors mentioned above are all determinant factors in China's FDI to Latin American countries. Among them, the influential effects of the first four factors are promoting, and that of the latter two are suppressing. At the end of the article, policy suggestions were proposed taking both the current investment situation and model based estimation into account.