中国全要素生产率的来源：理论构建和经验数据

The Resource of the TFP in China:Theory and Empirical Analysis

本文根据DEA模型和对偶理论,推导出效率分配方程,基于此方程对全要素生产率、技术进步等进行分解,分解为对应的要素效率,并对中国省级数据进行实证分析,得到如下几点结论:(1)中国全要素生产率保持高速增长,全要素-劳动生产率为主要推动力,但"人口效率红利效应"正在逐步消失。(2)大多数省市的技术进步呈高速增长趋势,是推动全要素生产率增长的主要动力,而劳动力技术进步是推动技术进步的主要动力。(3)大多数省市的技术效率改进增长率为负,而资本技术效率改进为其主要原因。(4)不管对于全要素生产率还是技术进步,1998年后东中部、东西部资本效率差距都是东中部、东西部效率差距的主要原因,而对于技术效率改进差距,资本技术效率改进和劳动力技术效率改进在不同阶段起不同作用。改革最成功的地方是提高了劳动力生产效率,而在资本效率方面效果不佳。在"人口效率红利效应"逐步消失的今天,如何长久地提高资本效率,应是中国今后改革的着力点。

Based on DEA model and Duality theory,the productivity distribution equation is deduced. Based on this equation,the TFP,technological progress etc are decomposed into factors′ productivity accordingly. Then the empirical analysis is applied to study on the province data in China,which show：（1）The TFP grow rapidly in China,and the labor TFP is its major driving force,but the demographic dividend of efficiency disappear gradually.（2）Most provinces′technological progress which is the major driving force on TFP show rapid growth trend,and labor technological progress is its major driving force.（3）The technical efficiency（Relative to the frontier）of most provinces shows negative growth,and capital technical efficiency is the major factor.（4）After 1998,the capital productivity gap between the east and the west is the major factor of the TFP gap and the technological progress gap between the east and the west,and this is also for the gap between the east and middle. The capital technical efficiency gap and labor technical efficiency gap play different roles on technical efficiency gap according to different phase. The reform raises the labor productivity rapidly,but its effect on capital productivity is insignificant. Allowing for the gradual disappear of demographic dividend of efficiency,how to raise the capital productivity should be the focal point of the future reform in China.