我国天然气消费的区域差异及影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Regional Differences of Natural Gas Consumption in China: A Provincial Panel Data Analysis

国务院2014年11月下发的能源发展战略行动计划(2014—2020年)中明确提出,要提高天然气在一次能源消费结构中的比重,推行区域差别化能源政策。在此背景下,文章基于2000—2012年的省级面板数据,运用因子分析、回归分析等方法对我国天然气消费现状、区域差异以及影响因素进行分析,得出以下结论:我国天然气消费势头迅猛;消费强度、消费总量和增长速度是目前我国天然气消费水平的主导影响因子,其累积贡献率达到90.893%;消费水平区域差异显著,属于供给指向型布局;地区居民收入水平的提高、人口的增长、管网的修建、第三产业比重的提高、季节性温度降低能够拉动全国天然气的消费,而替代能源价格上涨对天然气消费影响并不显著。其中管道设施建设水平对全国各区域影响都比较大,东部和西部地区富于人口弹性和气候弹性,而中部地区富于价格弹性。此外,西部地区对产业结构和收入最为敏感。

The Strategic Action Plan on Energy Development （2014---2020） the State Council issued in November 2014 explicitly stated the proportion of natural gas is to be increased in primary energy consumption and the regional differentiation energy policies are to be followed. In this context, this paper, applying the factor and regression analy- sis, discussed the regional differences of China＇s natural gas consumption and its influencing factors based on 2000 to 2012 provincial panel data. It found that the natural gas consumption in China has increased rapidly in recent years and the dominant factors are the strength of consumption, total consumption and growth rate, whose cumulative con- tribution rate reaches 90.893%. The regional consumption difference is significant --- a supply orientation type. The residents＇ increased income, population growth, the construction of the pipe network, the increasing proportion of ter- tiary industry and climate change could boost the consumption of natural gas in China while the increase of alterna- tive energy price produce an insignificant effect on natural gas consumption. What＇ s more, the eastern and western regions are population and climate sensitive while the middle part is price elastic. The western region is most sensi- tive to the industrial structure and income.