限行政策对道路交通流的影响研究——以天津市为例

A Study of the Impact of Vehicle Restriction Policies on Traffic Flow:A Case Study of Tianjin

国内外许多城市开始实施限行政策以来,其效果的有效性一直备受争议。以天津市为例,采用多元线性回归模型定量评价限行政策对机动车车流量的影响。研究了天津市不同路段在限行政策实施前后,机动车在不同时段的流量变化。通过选定不同的自变量与因变量做回归分析,分别研究了限制不同尾号个数的限行政策对工作日车流量的影响,限行政策对不同路口交通流量影响程度的不同以及限行政策对限行前后周末车流量的变化。研究发现,限行强度越大,机动车车流量受到的影响越大;工作日限行,路口车流量减少幅度最大为16%;APEC单双号限行,路口车流量减少幅度最大为27.4%。实施限行政策的工作日,早高峰前路口车流量最大增长了23.7%,这说明限行政策使得人们有采取提早出行的方式来规避限行政策的趋势。限行后周末的车流量增加比例为8%~22%,这表明工作日限行政策的实施,使得人们将一些柔性的出行需求转移到周末,增加了周末出行的需求和欲望。

The effectiveness of the restriction policies has always been controversial since their wide implementations at home and abroad.A multivariate linear regression model has been applied to quantitatively evaluate the impact of restriction policies on traffic flow of motor vehicles in a case study of Tianjin.The variation of traffic flow of motor vehicles after the implementation of restriction policies is investigated in different times of the day.By selecting different independent variables and dependent variables for the regression analyses,the impact of tail-number restriction policy on traffic flow of weekdays,the impact at road intersections,and variations of vehicle traffic flows on weekends are studied.It is shown that the traffic flow is closely related to the restriction rules.The traffic flows of workdays at major road intersections are reduced by 16%at most while a maximum reduction rate of 27.4%is resulted by odd-even license plate rule during the APEC.Moreover,the traffic flow before the morning rush hour increased by 23.7% on weekdays when the twonumber restriction policy is applied,indicating that people tend to travel earlier to work around the restriction policies.Traffic flow on weekend increases 8%-22% after the implementation of two-number restriction policy on weekdays,suggesting more flexible travel demand are being shifted to weekends.