河南省农业干旱风险评价框架与应用

Agricultural drought risk assessment framework and application in Henan

风险评价是风险管理的基础性工作,科学合理的风险评价框架是实现综合风险防范的核心内容和关键环节.文章基于灾害系统理论,从灾害形成机理视角,构建了农业干旱风险评价框架,并以河南省2014年干旱事件为案例进行实证研究.结果表明,1)河南省农业干旱风险呈现明显的空间差异特征,高风险区主要分布在平顶山、洛阳和南阳等地区,而低风险区主要分布在北部的鹤壁、安阳、濮阳和新乡以及东南部的信阳等地区,并体现出致灾因子与承灾体的叠加作用;2)基于灾害系统理论的农业干旱风险评价框架包含了植被、土壤、降水以及承灾体数量和分布特征等多方面要素,能够有效表征农业干旱灾害的致灾过程,同时结合本文采用的赋权方法能够较好地再现河南省2014年夏季干旱灾害的受灾等级和空间分布特征.

Risk assessment is the basis for risk management,reasonable framework of risk assessment is the core content and key links to achieve comprehensive risk prevention.Theory of disaster system was applied and a framework for risk assessment of agricultural drought was constructed from the perspective of drought formation.This framework was used to assess drought risk in Henan Province in 2014.Marked spatial differences in agricultural drought risk were found.Regions with high risk were in Pingdingshan,Luoyang,and Nanyang,while areas with low risk were in the north and southeast of Henan Province such as Hebi,Anyang,Puyang,Xinxiang,and Xinyang.Distribution of risk reflected the superposition effect of hazards and bearing bodies.The framework of risk assessment for agricultural drought contains multi-factors including vegetation,soil,precipitation,quantities and distribution of bearing bodies.The framework can effectively characterize the hazard process of agricultural drought.Combined with the weight calculation method,better reproduction of agricultural drought grade and distribution in the province in 2014 was obtained.