基于历史相似案例的农业旱灾灾情快速评估方法研究

Assessment of disaster losses based on similarly historical drought disaster dataset

目前有关基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估研究报道甚少,本文详细介绍了基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估技术流程,并以河南省为例,收集了2001—2013年该省农业旱灾相关数据,对2007年和2013年的农业旱灾受灾面积进行了基于历史相似案例的灾情评估.结果表明:只利用一次灾害历史事件进行灾情评估的结果不可靠,无法满足业务需求,基于2个以上(包括2个)历史相似案例的河南省旱灾灾情评估精度在77.72%和96.28%之间,且选取2个相似历史案例时评估精度最佳(评估精度在90%以上).基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估方法简单,操作容易,具有一定应用前景.

There are very few studies so far of disaster loss assessment based on disaster dataset of historically similar droughts.In this study,the technological flow of disaster loss assessment in terms of historically similar drought disaster dataset is introduced,then Henan Province is chosen as the study area to assess the area covered by drought disaster in 2007 using historical drought disaster dataset of 2001—2006and to assess the area covered by drought disaster in 2013 using the historical drought disaster dataset of 2001—2012.Assessment of area covered by drought disaster is found to be unreliable when only one historically similar drought disaster data are used.The assessment precision is between 77.72%~96.28% when more than two similar historical drought disaster data are used.It is an easy and promising method to assess disaster loss from historically similar drought disaster dataset.