村镇居民交通时间模拟及其在灾害风险评估中的应用

Travel time modeling of rural residents and application in disaster risk assessment

本文尝试以覆盖我国24个省市共45个村镇样本的居民生活模式调研为基础,村镇居民的交通时间与易得的空间指标进行建模.结果表明,村镇建成区面积Ab(hm2)与居民交通时间T(min)存在显著的负相关关系.其中,农业从业者的交通时间T_f与建成区面积Ab关系最敏感,其回归模型为lnT_f=-0.33·ln Ab+4.38.二、三产业从业者可划分为本村和外村从业者,外村从业者的交通时间T_w接近本村从业者交通时间T_b的3倍,其回归模型分别为lnT_b=-0.23·lnA_b+3.18、lnT_w=-0.20·lnA_b+4.28.本文应用上述模型对灾害情景下不同大小村镇不同从业人员的人群室内室外分布进行了示例仿真.综上所述,村镇居民交通时间模型输入参数易获取,模型形式简单,可广泛用于突发事件暴露评估以及灾害死亡人口快速评估,为风险评估和管理提供了准确的数据支持.

Modeling of human travel time is compelling for risk management and emergency response in a disaster.The established travel time models for urban area do not work for rural residents because of the spatial scattering of small villages or towns as well as the differences in living patterns.An effort to employ spatial indicator is reported to model travel times T(min)for rural residents,which has been obtained from a Human Activity of Rural REsidents' survey(HARRE survey)covering a total of 45 villages in 24 provinces of China.It is found that the rural residents' traffic time is best explained by rural built up area(hm2)with statistical significance.The travel time of farmers(T_f)relates to the built up area(A_b)by lnT_f=-0.33·lnA_b+4.38.The travel time of rural workers in non-agricultural sectors is modeled separately according to whether the workplace is in the dwelling village or not,the former travel time(Tb)relates to Abby ln Tb=-0.23·lnAb+3.18 and the latter travel time(Tw)by ln Tw=-0.20·ln A_b+4.28 implying Twreaching about three times of Tb.With the above three formulae taken into account,the fraction of residents indoors and outdoors in a disaster scenario is simulated for three villages of different sizes(A_b).Due to the ready accessibility of input variable of Aband simplicity in form,travel time model is expected to become a supportive tool for assessment and management of public security risks,and for exposure assessment and rapid estimation of life loss in a disaster emergency.