中国典型区域地震灾害生命易损性模型适用性评价

Assessing the applicability of life vulnerability models for earthquake disasters in typical regions of China

以地震灾害生命损失为研究对象,系统收集整理了国内51例地震的人员死亡数据,并对5类具有代表性的地震灾害生命易损性模型进行适用性评价.研究结果表明:1)对于M <5.5级地震,5类模型的多数评估结果基本都在合理范围内;5.5≤M <6.0级地震,5类评估模型结果误差较小且在合理范围内的模型为基于震中烈度和适用特定区域的模型;6.0≤M <7.0级地震,5类模型的多数评估结果不在一个数量级;M≥7.0级地震一般需采用特定适用范围的评估模型和专家经验参与,才可能会得到相对准确的评估结果,但仍然存在较大的误差.2)地震灾害生命易损性模型不适用于城市直下型地震生命损失评估,对于此类地震5种模型的评估结果都出现了较大偏差.3)在空间上地震灾害生命易损性模型存在分区现象,评估结果具有明显的区域性.

Life loss in earthquake disasters was studied in this work,with life loss data in 51 typical earthquake disasters in China collected.Five representative life vulnerability models of earthquake disasters were selected by earthquake parameter based empirical model the applicability was assessed in typical regions of China.The majority of the assessment results for the five representative models were found to be reasonable with earthquake magnitude lower than 5.5.With earthquake magnitude from 5.5-<6.0,all five models were presented with small errors.Within a reasonable range are models based on epicenter intensity and specific regions.With earthquake magnitude≥7.0,the assessment model with specific applicable scopes and expert experience were generally required to obtain relatively accurate assessment results,which,however,contained large errors.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters were found not applicable to assessment of life loss in earthquakes occurring directly beneath the city.Large deviations were found in the assessment results of these five models in such earthquakes.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters could be divided spatially in typical regions of China,and the assessment results were obviously regionally differentiated.