农民收入“超常规增长”的理论依据、积累效果与政策启示

Theoretical Basis,Accumulation Effect and Policy Implications in Extraordinary Income Growth for Chinese Farmers

如果以发达国家城乡居民收入比的平均水平1.5左右为参照标准,在新常态下欲实现"缩小城乡收入差距,推进城乡一体化"这一国家既定发展战略目标,那么从理论上就要求农民收入必须实现"超常规增长",而且这一"超常规增长"必须是在较高国民收入增长水平基础之上实现对城镇居民收入增长水平的长期超越,同时这种长期超越应该在未来三十年左右的时间内保持高于城镇居民收入增长率两到三个百分点的水平。未来中国欲实现城乡居民收入倍增和差距缩小的对策为:一是应合理改革居民初次收入分配体制,进一步提高劳动者收入在国民收入分配中的份额;二是增强城乡居民消费能力,加快完善社会保障体系,提高社会保障覆盖率;三是加大农村居民的转移支付力度,逐步稳定缩小城乡居民转移性收入差距;四是明确农民收入倍增总体框架,提高农民收入增长质量,优化农民收入结构,最终方能实现城乡居民收入差距缩小目标。

This paper focuses on a scientific and reasonable study of the concept and theoretical definition of the farmer's extraordinary income growth and tests the accumulation effect of the farmer's extraordinary income growth for some time into the future by using 2010 urban and rural resident'income data.Our conclusion is as follows.If regarding 1.5-fold average ratio of urban-rural residents'income in developed countries as the reference standard,under the New Normal background,we want to achieve the strategic goal of shortening the urban-rural income gap to impel the urban-rural integration so that farmers'income will realize extraordinary growth in theory.This kind of extraordinary growth must go beyond urban residents'income growth for a long time base on a higher national income growth.At the same time,this long-time surpassing should maintain 2 or 3 percent higher than urban residents'income growth rate for the next thirty or so years.Finally,according to the above findings,this paper puts forward some major countermeasures for China to achieve urban-rural residents'income growth doubly and gap narrowed.