气候变暖对内蒙古东部地区农牧业气候资源的影响

Impact of warmer climate on agricultural and animal husbandry climatic resources in eastern Inner Mongolia

选取内蒙古东部地区48个气象站1961-2014年的日气温、降水资料,计算了与农牧业生产相关的热量、水分等要素,深入分析了气候资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农牧业生产的影响。结果表明:1987-2014年比1961-1986年增温明显,特别是最低气温的增幅最为显著,冬季增温高于其它季节;≥0℃、≥10℃积温和无霜期均有所增加,积温线向西北方向推进;冬季≤-25℃低温天数明显减少;作物生长季降水量基本持平,但降水变率增大。因气候变暖,热量资源显著增加,长生育期作物扩种,设施农业冻害风险降低,有利于牲畜安全越冬度春,但会导致天然牧草退化,病虫害虫卵易于越冬;降水变率增大使干旱发生概率变大。

The daily temperature and precipitation data from 48 meteorological stations during 1961- 2014 in eastern Inner Mongolia were used to calculate the factors related to agricultural and animal husbandry production such as heat and water,etc. and to analyse the response of climatic resources to the warmer climate and its impact on agricultural and animal husbandry production. The results show that temperature increment during 1987- 2014 was more apparent than that during 1961- 1986,especially the increment of the lowest temperature,and that the temperature increment during winter was more apparent than other seasons; the accumulated temperature≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased significantly,the frost- free period became longer,and the contour of accumulated temperature moved toward the northwest; the amount of winter days whose temperature was lower than- 25℃decreased apparently; the precipitation of crop- growing season was basically the same,but the precipitation variability increased; the warmer climate brought about a significant increase in heat resources,an expansion of the growing area of long growing period crops,and a lower frost damage risk of agricultural facilities. It helped livestock pull through winter and spring safely,but it led to the degradation of natural pasture and made it easier for pests and their eggs to live through winter; the amplification of precipitation variability increased the probability of drought.