锡林河流域气候变化特征诊断分析

The diagnosis of climate change characteristics in Xilinhe river basin

以锡林河流域为研究对象,利用研究区内锡林浩特站及周边阿巴嘎旗站和林西站3个国家气象站1960-2010年的逐日气象数据,通过对气温、降雨进行滑动分析、线性倾向分析、R/S分析、Mann-Kendall、Pettitt突变分析、Morlet小波变换周期分析,探讨了近51年来锡林河流域气温、降雨的年、季趋势变化、突变情形、周期变化和未来变化趋势。结果表明,锡林河流域年平均气温呈上升趋势,且上升趋势显著,四季变化中,冬季气温升高对全年增温贡献较大。年平均气温以1987年为突变年,突变前后上升了1.36℃。在20-32a的时间尺度上出现了冷-暖交替的准两次震荡。年平均降雨呈下降趋势,下降趋势不显著,夏季降雨的减小对全年降雨贡献极大。冬季降雨在1987发生了突变,突变前后降雨增加了1.64mm,在20-32a时间尺度上出现了湿-干交替的准两次震荡。整个流域环境呈现出"冷湿-暖干-冷湿-暖干"的变化规律。

Based on the observed data of Xilinhaote station in Xilinhe River basin and the station of Abaga and Lixi Stations near the river basin in 1960- 2010,using the method of Sliding,linear trend,R / S,Mann- Kendall,Pettitt and Morlet analysis,the interannual temperature and rainfall sequence trends,mutation situations,cycles and future trends in the recent 51 years were analyzed. The result indicated that the annual average temperature was rising,and showed a significant upward trend; winter temperature contributed lot to the warmer of the whole year. The annual average temperature abrupt was in 1987,and the temperature averaged from 1987-2010 was more than 1. 36 ℃ that higher than that from 1960 to1986. There were significant cold- warm cyclical changes with 20- 32 years periods. The annual average rainfall was decreasing,the decrease of the summer rains contributed greatly to the precipitation throughout the year. The annual average rain abrupt in was in 1987,and the rainfall averaged from 1987- 2010 was more than 1. 64 mm that higher than that from 1960 to1986.There were significantly dry- wet cyclical changes with 20- 32 years periods. The whole basin environment presented a ＂ cold wet- warm dry- cold wet- dry wet＂.