禽流感风险下中国家禽产业链的转型选择——以扬州立华模式为例

Avian Influenza and the Transformation of China's Poultry Industry Chain: Taking YangzhouLihua as an Example

本文基于扬州立华53家合作农户的非平衡面板数据以及扬州立华所在高邮市的197个农户两年跟踪数据,分析了禽流感风险下"公司+农户"模式的应对策略、农户增收效应及龙头企业绩效。研究发现,尽管扬州立华"公司+农户"模式具有较强适应能力,但其签约养禽户劳均1.8万元/批的增收效应是建立在企业巨额亏损风险转移行为之上的。在禽流感持续风险下,"公司+农户"模式陷入"内卷化"困境。鉴于当前龙头企业横向市场力量不足以及纵向延伸资金约束较强的转型障碍,政府应通过财税政策、政策性金融以及产业链金融等措施予以支持和引导,当然,扶持龙头企业构建"全产业链"的首要政策目标仍是扶持农户。

Based on the unbalanced panel data of 53 farmers from Yangzhou Lihua Company,and two round surveys of 197 farmers in Yangzhou,the paper empirically analyzed the impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the coping strategies and performance for the farmers and company. We found that: although Lihua company has a strong adaptive ability( they mainly changed the feeding species),but the increased income performance of 18000 Yuan per capita for farmers is totally came from the company's losses. In the face of Avian Influenza,Lihua Company has not created excessive profits and caused the enterprises fell into an involution dilemma. In the coming future,'whole industry chain'should be encouraged for the close of live bird markets permanently,potential market of chilled products,and the competition of international capital. Governments should adopt fiscal,tax policy,and financial policy to support whole industry chain. Besides,the profit allocation for the farmers should also be targeted.