新疆县域经济的增长模式

Regional Economic Development Model in Xinjiang in County Stale

在新古典理论模型假设的基础上梳理了空间外溢及空间俱乐部趋同的理论,选取1998—2013年研究时段,通过全局Moran's I指数、LISA散点图和σ趋同指数测度区域空间格局,结合空间计量模型(SLM、SEM、SDM)探析空间外溢效应外溢路径,提出新疆空间增长模式并给予实践佐证。结果表明:第一,新疆县域经济发展存在空间溢出效应,组内差异缩小和组间差距拉大并存,经济极化增长与人均收入差异拉大并存;第二,空间溢出效应可以部分解释新疆人均收入差异;第三,新疆县域经济发展出现趋同俱乐部;第四,新疆空间外溢效应的溢出路径主要经历了"增长率驱动—政策冲击—多元化驱动",冀以提出全疆"空间集聚、向心发展"的有重点、多片区、全局化的多层次"核心—外围"模式构想。

Global growth is the difficult problem in practice, Xinjiang wanted to have targeted moves in building the core area of the Silk Road, it have to grasp and clarify the mechanism of spatial economic growth in Xinjiang. This paper selects the 1998-2013 as the study period, in the base of the theory of spatial spillover and σ Convergence index, use the global Moran＇I index, Moran＇I scatter diagram and delta convergence of regional spatial index structure, combine with the spatial econometric model（SLM, SEM, SDM） to study on the spillover path of spatial spillover effect. The results show that： 1）the development of county economy in Xinjiang exists the spatial spillover effect, economic polarized growth and the expanding per capita income coexist; 2） the space spillover effect may partly explain the differences in per capita income in Xinjiang; 3）the development of county economy in Xinjiang have club convergence; 4） the spillover path of Xinjiang spatial spillover effects mainly through the growth rate,the stochastic turbulence to multi reasons.