区域经济—生态环境—旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测——以长江经济带沿线各省市为例

Analysis and Forecast of Coupling Coordination Development among the Regional Economy-Ecological Environment-Tourism Industry—A Case Study of Provinces Along the Yangtze Economic Zone

将区域经济—生态环境—旅游产业看成一个内涵广泛、结构复杂且具耦合特征的开放性巨系统,正确认识和处理三者间关系是区域可持续发展的前提与基础。首先,构建了区域经济—生态环境—旅游产业耦合协调评价体系,以长江经济带沿线11个省市为例,运用加权TOPSIS法对该区各省市三大系统的综合发展水平进行评价;其次,基于耦合协调模型,从时空维度对长江经济带各省市三大系统耦合协调演化关系给予分析;最后,运用灰色GM(1.1)模型,对该区三大系统的未来耦合协调度进行预测。研究发现:长江经济带沿线各省市区域经济和旅游产业系统具较高关联性,而环境保护与经济发展间并不具有显著冲突;三大系统耦合协调度从时间上看以保持稳定和波动上升为主,空间上大致呈东高西低的发展格局,且耦合发展主要制约因素东中西部各有不同;未来几年内该区三大系统的耦合协调度除个别省份外,总体呈小幅上升发展趋势。

Regional economy- Ecological environment- Tourism industry is an open giant system with broad connotation,complex structures, multidimensional relationship and coupling characteristic. Based on the statistics data of 11 provinces（cities） along the Yangtze River Economic Zone, this paper firstly constructed an evaluation system of Regional economy- Ecological environment- Tourism industry, and evaluated the development level of these three systems by using weighted TOPSIS. Secondly, the paper analyzed the coupling coordination level of provinces（cities） from temporal and spatial dimension based on the coupling model in physics. Lastly, the paper predicted the coupling coordinative degree of Regional economy- Ecological environment- Tourism industry in the following several years by GM（1.1）forecasting model. The results show that there is high relevance between Regional economy and Tourism industry in the provinces（cities）, but there is no significant contradiction between environmental protection and economic development.From the angle of time, coupling coordinative degree experienced stable or fluctuant ascent. From the angle of space,spatial distribution of the coupling coordinative degree presented a high level in the eastern while a low level in the western. Besides, the main constraints of the coordinative relationship are different in different areas. The paper predicted that coupling coordinative degree in the whole region will present a slow ascent in the following few years except a few individual provinces.