援助会促进投资吗——基于中国对非洲援助及直接投资的实证研究

Does Financial Aid From the Chinese Government Increase Investment From China in Africa? A Panel Data Study

本文采用动态面板数据的系统GMM估计和分位数回归方法,考察了中国对非洲国家援助对其投资的影响。在控制了市场、资源、人口、开放度和经济发展水平这些因素之后,结果显示中国对非援助与投资的关系随着援助类型的不同而呈现出各自独特的趋势:投向社会基础设施部门的援助会加速促进中国对非投资的增长;投向经济基础设施部门的援助对投资的影响呈先升后降的倒"U"型趋势;与此同时,直接流向东道国生产性部门和政府的援助与中国对非投资则呈"U"型关系。

This paper examines the effect of China＇s aid on its overseas direct investment in African countries. System GMM estimators and quantile analysis are applied to the data. After controlling for factors such as market size, level of economic development, and energy reserves, we find that the relationship between aid and ODI varies with the different categories of aid. Aid invested in social infrastructure has a significant positive effect on ODI, and aid invested in economic infrastructure also increases ODI from China to African countries. But the marginal effect diminishes as the amount of aid increases. There is also a Ushaped relationship between aid invested in the productive sector or governments and China＇s ODI.