金融结构与经常账户失衡研究——基于跨国面板数据的研究

Financial Structures and Imbalances in Current Accounts:a Study Based on Multinational Panel Data

本文构建金融结构与经常账户的理论模型,使用91个国家1990-2011年的跨国面板数据,基于Driscoll和Kraay(1998)估计对金融结构与经常账户的关系进行再检验,得出四点结论:人均GDP与经常账户的U型关系表现不稳定,全样本中是U型关系,但分组样本中二者均表现为倒U型关系;金融危机效应,两次金融危机的发生造成经常账户赤字;金融一体化进程必须要和金融结构共同影响经常账户,且这种效应在发达国家中更显著;金融结构问题,一国金融结构的比值上升,表明金融结构处于劣势,即一国金融中介居于主导地位,使得一国经常账户出现盈余,而且金融结构效应在发展中国家的系数值更大。

This paper examines the correlation between financial structures and current accounts by building a theoretical model with panel data from 91 countries from between 1990 and 2011. To address a possible cross-section autoregression among countries, the model also uses the test of Driscoll and Kraay（1998） to reassess the relationship between a country＇s financial structure and its current account. Our conclusions are as follows. First, the U- shaped relationship between per capita GDP and the current account is not stable. Despite the appearance of a U-shaped pattern when the samples are examined as a whole, the separate samples of developed countries and developing countries show an inverted Ushaped pattern. Second, the influence of financial crisis is apparent. The virtual variable coefficient of two financial crises is significant and negative, which indicates that financial crises are the main cause of current account deficits. Third,when it interacts with the entire financial structure, the process of financial integration affects the current account as an organic whole, and the effect from these interactions is the most significant in developed countries. Finally, growth in a country＇s financial sector as a percentage of the economy reflects a disadvantaged financial structure（i.e., when a country＇s financial intermediaries dominate, the country＇s current account will show a surplus）. The coefficient value of the effect is larger in developing countries.