“一带一路”战略能够化解我国过剩的钢铁产能吗——基于时变参数向量自回归模型平均的预测

Can the Belt and Road Strategy Solve the Problem of Iron and Steel Production Overcapacity in China? A Study Based on TVP-VAR-DMA

本文研究了我国钢铁需求量的主要影响因素,分别使用Small TVPVAR模型、Medium TVP-VAR模型、Large TVP-VAR模型、TVP-VAR-DMA和TVP-VAR-DMS对我国钢铁需求量进行预测并比较,研究结果表明TVPVAR-DMA能够快速适应中国经济结构的渐变和突变情况并能较大地提高其预测的准确性。预测结果表明,基于国际货币基金组织对各国GDP增长率的预测和我国钢铁产能不再增加的条件下,"一带一路"战略将逐年化解我国过剩的钢铁产能,2015年至2020年期间我国的粗钢需求值大约每年增加0.146亿吨,最终在2020年我国将只有0.48亿吨左右过剩的粗钢产能。同时,为了完全解决我国钢铁产业产能过剩的问题,国家应该进一步扩大"一带一路"战略的国际钢铁市场,强化市场配置资源功能,减少低端钢铁产品的产能扩张。

This paper studies the main factors affecting demand for Chinese steel and uses small, medium, and large TVP-VAR models as well as TVP-VARDMA and TVP-VAR-DMS models to forecast demand for Chinese steel. The results show that the TVP-VAR-DMA model adapts quickly to gradual and sudden economic changes in China and greatly improves the accuracy of current predictions. The prediction results from our study show that, based on IMF predictions of the GDP growth of various countries and the condition that the Chinese steel production capacity would be capped, the Belt and Road strategy would be able to solve the problem of Chinese steel production overcapacity. The prediction results also show that Chinese demand for crude steel will increase by about 14.6million tons between 2015 and 2020. In 2020, crude steel overcapacity will only be about 48 million tons. In order to completely solve the overcapacity problem,the Chinese government should further expand the Belt and Road strategy into international steel markets, strengthen the market＇ s ability to allocate resources,and reduce the growth of production capacity of low-level steel products.