韧性城市:风险治理及指标建构——兼论国际案例

Resilient City:Risk Management and Its Indicators

城市日益成为复杂的巨型系统,同时也越来越脆弱,韧性理论为之提供了新的思路。韧性概念有"能力恢复说"、"扰动说"、"系统说"和"提升能力说"四种典型定义,这一概念不关注城市系统是否恢复灾前状态,它强调的是"重组"能力,包括吸收外界扰动、学习和再组织、快速恢复正常和软硬件应对能力。确定韧性城市指标需要遵循符合韧性意涵、能比较、代表性和可行性四项原则,这一评估指标包含气候灾害韧性、经济韧性、社区韧性、组织韧性和基础设施韧性等层面,国际韧性城市实践主要有自上而下、自下而上及二者混合推进类型。尽管韧性评估指标存在获取实证数据困难、稳定不变假设和无形韧性难以量化等局限,但毋庸置疑,它为推动城市风险治理提供了新政策和重要的行动指南。

City has become a giant complicated system and been more and more vulnerable. Resilience is a new theory for the development of city. The theory of resilience includes four typical concepts, namely, ability restoration, turbulence, system and ability to improve. Such theory focuses on the ability to restore, including such abilities as to adapt to outside turbulence, study, reorganize, quickly recover and react rather than the problem whether city system can be restore to the situation before disaster or not. The establishment of indicators of city resilience should be based on four principles of conforming to the concept of resilience, being able to compare and contrast, being representative and practicable. Such indicators include resilience of climate, economy, community, organization, infrastructure and so on. The practice of resilience of international cities falls into three brackets, from top to bottom, from bottom to top and both of them. Evaluating indicators of resilience have difficulties in getting empirical data, setting stable hypothesis and quantizing invisible resilience and so on, but undoubtedly, it has become a new theory and guideline to promote risk management of cities.