新疆农村金融抑制及其福利损失程度测度

Rural Financial Repression and Welfare Loss Degree in Xinjiang

利用对新疆农户的微观调研数据,基于双变量Probit模型分析农户资金供求的影响因素,估计新疆农村金融抑制程度,采用平均处理效应下的Match模型估计农村金融抑制的福利损失程度,研究表明:新疆农村金融抑制程度为67.82%,农村金融抑制对全部样本农户和遭受农村金融抑制的样本农户的消费支出、纯收入和经营纯收入均有负向影响,且全部样本农户的福利损失与遭受农村金融抑制农户的福利损失没有明显差异;上年生产性固定资产、上年金融资产余额、重大活动支出、是否处于高经济水平村庄等因素对农户资金需求有显著的正向影响,户主受教育水平、户主有无技能、是否有干部成员、获赠所得、是否处于资金丰裕村庄、非正规途径贷款、是否处于高经济水平村庄等因素对农户资金供给有显著的正向影响。

By using the micro survey data of rural households in Xinjiang and based on the bivariate Probit model, this paper estimates rural financial repression degree in Xinjiang, in addition, the paper estimates the welfare loss of rural financial repression by using the Match model of the average treatment effect. The empirical research result shows that the rural financial repression degree in Xinjiang is 67.82%, that the rural financial repression has negative effect on the consumption expenditure, net income and net operating income of the whole sample of rural households, that there is not obvious difference between welfare loss of the whole sample and the welfare loss of the rural households who suffered financial repression, that there is significant positive influence of the factors such as production fixed assets and financial asset balance in first half year, big activity expenditure, the villages in high- level economy and so on on rural household capital demand, and that there is significantly positive impact of the factors such as the education level of the farmers, the skill of the farmers, whether the household members are cadres, gift income, the village in rich economy, loan from informal way, the villages in high economic level andso on on rural household capital supply.