中国羊肉价格上涨的经济效应研究

Study on Economic Effects of Mutton Price Rising in China

羊肉是中国重要的畜产品之一。近些年来,受到羊肉供给不足、市场消费需求旺盛、肉羊养殖成本上升等多方面因素的影响,中国羊肉价格迅速上涨。运用相关统计数据分析羊肉价格上涨分别对羊肉供给、居民羊肉消费以及CPI的影响。分析结果显示:羊肉价格的上涨对羊肉供给的增加有着较为积极的影响,羊肉供给的短期价格弹性和长期价格弹性分别为0.31和0.76;羊肉价格上涨会增加居民羊肉消费支出,收入较低群体和边疆少数民族居民所受的影响程度更大;羊肉价格与CPI有相关性,其价格上涨会推动CPI,但程度有限。基于上述结论,提出应加大对羊肉生产的政策扶持力度,为收入较低群体和边疆少数民族聚居地区居民提供补贴以及加强价格的监测与预警工作。

Mutton is one of the important livestock in China. In recent years,mutton price rose sharply in China because of slowed mutton supply,increased consumption,mutton sheep breeding costs and other reasons. By using relevant statistical data,this paper analyzes the impact on sheep production,meat consumption and CPI caused by rising mutton prices. The study shows the following results. First,mutton price rising would increase mutton supply,and its short-term and long-term price elasticity are 0. 31 and 0. 76 respectively. Second,it would increase residents＇ consumption expenditures,the negative impact of low-income groups and border areas inhabited by minority residents suffered greater. Third,mutton prices rising will push CPI,but its impact is limited. Based on the above results,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations. First,sheep production should be given more policy supports.Second,government should provide subsidies to lower-income groups and minority groups living in border areas. At last,strengthening price monitoring and early warning is also a must.