灰色GM(1,1)模型在靖西天然气管道负荷预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Method in Jingxi Natural Gas Pipeline Load Forecasting

靖西天然气管道是重要输气干线,准确预测需求负荷变化情况,确保管道安全、平稳、高效供气意义重大。文中以灰色理论为基础,利用管道历年气量数据建立灰色预测的GM(1,1)模型,采用后验差检验对预测模型进行检验,并对该管道未来用气需求量进行预测。计算结果显示:灰色GM(1,1)模型预测结果与实际结果具有较好的一致性,精度能够满足实际应用的要求,预测结果对靖西管道运行管理具有一定的借鉴作用。

Jingxi natural gas pipeline is an important gas transmission trunk line,preparing to forecast demand load change situation,ensuring the pipeline safety,stability and efficiency of the air supply and having signality. Accurately based on the grey theory,the GM（ 1,1） model was constructed using the historical data,and the model was tested by the posterior-variancetest,and the consumption of natural gas in the future was forecast. The result show that the GM（ 1,1） model obtains the good consistency between the forecast result and the actual value,and satisfied the accuracy requirements of the practical application.The forecast result has a reference function to operation and management of the Jingxi natural gas pipeline.