社会融资规模可控性的研究——基于“本源论”的视角

A Study on the Controllability of the Aggregate Financing to Real Economy:From the Origin Perspective

针对社会融资规模可控性存在争议这一问题,以基础货币这一本源作为研究起点,然后运用经典货币经济学理论对社会融资规模的形成和变化机理进行分析和推理,得出了从基础货币和融资杠率的角度可以实现对社会融资规模相对控制的逻辑结论。实证检验结果也强烈支持基础货币与社会融资规模总量和变动趋势之间的关系。因此,只有实现了货币当局和监管当局的高度协调合作,才能真正实现对社会融资规模的控制,也才能逐步将社会融资规模或新的宽口径宏观金融指标上升到金融宏观调控中介目标的地位。

According to the paradigm of ＂ Tracing to its original source and then finding the essence＂,the study on the controllability of the AFRE should start from the monetary base. We conclude that financial authorities can relatively control AFRE from perspective of both monetary base and their leverages. The empirical study also supports a stable relationship between monetary base and AFRE. Hence,the cooperation and coordination are necessary among monetary authority and supervisory authorities for improving the effect of macro- financial regulation. Then AFRE or a new wide- caliber index can gradually become the intermediate target of macro- finance control.