双边营商环境、契约依赖和贸易持续期——基于中国企业微观数据的实证研究

Bilateral Business Environment,Contract Dependence and Duration of Trade:Evidence from Firm-level Data in China

在国际贸易中,贸易双方所在地的契约环境和贸易产品的契约特征是影响贸易关系的重要因素。文章基于异质性贸易理论框架,分别从产品行业特征的内因角度和地区契约环境的外因角度研究了契约因素如何通过影响风险来作用于贸易持续期,并使用HS8分位数层面的中国海关统计数据库、世界银行营商环境调查数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据,从"企业-产品-目的地"视角进行了COX比例风险分析。研究表明:(1)地理契约特征对贸易持续期存在着显著影响,贸易双方所在地的契约环境优势对贸易持续期有着显著的促进作用;(2)地理契约特征对贸易持续期的影响因贸易产品的异质性契约特征而存在差异,良好的地区契约环境能够在更大的边际效应上降低违约风险,并能够在高契约依赖度的产品贸易中得到更好地发挥;(3)虽然我国的贸易关系数量在增加,但退出率却在逐年上升。文章从贸易持续期的角度来研究贸易平稳性,这对于我国今后如何提升对外贸易质量有着重要意义。

In international trade,contract environment the two trade sides face and contract characteristics of trade products are the important factors affecting the trade relationship.According to heterogeneity trade theory,this paper explores how contract factors play a role in the duration of trade through their effects on risks from perspectives of internal and external causes,namely products industry features and regional contract environment respectively.And then based on Chinese Customs Statistics,the World Business Environment Survey of the World Bank and China Industry Business Performance Data at HS8 quantile level,it makes a COX proportional hazards analysis from an enterprise-product-destination perspective.It comes to the following conclusions：firstly,geographic contract feature has a significant effect on the duration of trade,and contract environment advantage plays a significant promotion role in the duration of trade;secondly,the effect of geographic contract feature on the duration of trade varies with heterogeneous contract features of trade products,and sound regional contract environment can reduce default risks in terms of larger margin effect and play a better role in the trade of products with high contract dependence;thirdly,trade relationship in China experiences quantity increase but a rise in exit rate year by year.This paper studies trade stability from a perspective of the duration of trade,and is of great significance to the improvement of trade quality in the future in China.