基于F-H方法的黄河流域跨边界水污染冲突研究

Cross-border water pollution conflicts in Yellow River basin based on F-H method

针对黄河流域跨边界水污染冲突问题,采用冲突分析法,构建由政府、中下游地区和上游地区作为局中人的冲突分析模型。结合预见性和合理性特性对冲突分析模型进行冲突均衡分析,得出冲突分析模型的均衡点,再通过平衡状态分析得到各局中人优先选取各个可行局势的概率,两者结合,选取最优解。结果表明,政府采取补偿政策和惩罚政策,中下游地区负担部分费用,上游地区采用完全消减污染物的策略是冲突分析模型的最优解。

For the cross-border pollution conflicts in Yellow River basin,a conflict analysis model regarding the government,the middle and lower reaches and the upstream reach as players is established by using the conflict analysis method. Combined with the prediction and rationality,the conflict equilibrium of the conflict model is analyzed,and the point of conflict equilibrium is obtained. Then various players' prior selected probabilities for each possible situation are yielded through the equilibrium analysis. A combination of the above two results in the optimal solution, that is, the government adopts compensation and punishment policies,the middle and lower reaches pays part of the cost, and the upstream reach uses full abatement of pollutants.